What Is Value Betting?
Value betting is the practice of placing bets where the probability of an outcome is higher than what the odds suggest. In simple terms, you are looking for odds that are too high relative to the true chance of something happening.
Understanding Expected Value (EV)
Expected Value is the mathematical foundation of value betting. The formula is straightforward:
EV = (Probability × Profit) - (1 - Probability) × Stake
When EV is positive, you have a value bet. Over hundreds of bets, positive EV translates to long-term profit regardless of short-term variance.
Closing Line Value (CLV)
One of the most reliable indicators of a sharp bettor is consistently beating the closing line. The closing line is the final set of odds before a market closes. If you regularly get better odds than the closing line, you are finding genuine value.
How to Find Value Bets
Finding value requires comparing odds across multiple bookmakers. Here are key strategies:
- Use odds comparison tools — Compare prices from 60+ bookmakers simultaneously
- Focus on markets you understand — Deep knowledge of a specific league gives you an edge
- Track line movements — Dropping odds often signal sharp money entering the market
- Bet early — Opening lines tend to offer more value than closing lines
Bankroll Management
Even with an edge, poor bankroll management can wipe out your profits. The Kelly Criterion suggests betting a fraction of your bankroll proportional to your edge:
Kelly % = (bp - q) / b
Where b = decimal odds - 1, p = probability of winning, q = probability of losing.
Most professional bettors use a fractional Kelly (25-50% of the full Kelly recommendation) to reduce variance.